2007 - the year of the Google Bash

Well, that didn't take long did it? As soon as '07 started there has been a slew of articles all casting doubts on Google and discussing its downfall. First up is a piece I saw in the NY Times: In Silicon Valley, the Race Is On to Trump Google with follow up articles from WebProNews 'Quest for the next Google' and a third sample from ZDNet 'Is Google search vulnerable in 2007?'

I don't really think that any of these articles are saying anything or exciting really. The 'race has been on' to out Google Google since big G made it to #1. Ironically I think that in many ways lots of search engines are already doing a lot better than Google, either in straight forward search functionality, in assisting users to narrow or focus their searches, in functionality unrelated to search (blogging, email etc) and very little actually makes a difference. None of this is really going to make a difference because it hasn't made a difference.

If you want to know what the 'Google killer' is going to be - go out onto your High Street and ask people. You're going to get blank looks back and people will treat you like an idiot. It's the average person in the street who makes the difference, and quite frankly, they don't care. They're happy using Google with all its faults and limitations. They think they know what they're doing, they're reasonably happy with the results that they get, and that's all that matters to them. They are not, in the main, prepared to spend any time learning better search, or exploring alternatives because Google is 'good enough'.

Google doesn't have to be brilliant, innovative, exciting or even leading the pack in terms of functionality. It just has to be good enough to keep the masses happy, and it does that very, very well. All that the other search engines can do is to try and capture the crumbs, and appeal to very specific audiences with vertical search and/or specific offerings. While that will get them traffic it's also going to sideline them very effectively, and it's still not going to affect Google.

The only time that Google needs to get worried is if and when they screw up. And I'm not talking here about the silly things like personal posts to official weblogs, deleting Gmail accounts and such like (all of which are of course not silly to the people involved, but in the bigger picture not many care), it's going to take something major that hits the 10 o'clock news to make people sit up and listen. It's going to require a catastrophy of epic proportions and quite frankly I don't think even Google is going to manage that.

So I happily predict we're going to get lots of 'Google killer' news this year and by the end of 2007 we'll find ourselves right back here with very little different. Google isn't going anywhere real soon, it's going to stay right on top, like it or not.

Comments

[Christopher Harris]

Sheesh, things move fast. I was still in the 2006 mode of trying to find an iPod killer! Does this mean we can stop bashing on MySpace now?

[Barry Welford]

I agree with you Phil on those items. However I believe there's a fundamental weakness that may trip them up. I'm wondering 'Will Google Start Marketing?' I blogged on that here (hope it's OK to include the link):
http://blog.cre8asite.net/bwelford/2007/01/will-google-start-marketing/