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August 07, 2011

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Roddy MacLeod

Amongst my non-information professional friends, aged from 40 onwards, there is a real hesitation to make use of the cloud. I think this will only change slowly.

Keys, etc. I was SO glad that my most recent car (VW campervan) doesn't have electronic windows. That means I'll always be able to open them, because they won't stop working at some time in the future. I would have the same feeling WRT car keys. Even the lads on Top Gear can't get some cars to start. Keys will be around for some time yet.

Most people's eyes go with time. In 20 year's time, half the 60+ people won't be able to do lots of things because their phone screens will be too small for them to work. I have sympathy for folk who struggle with three pairs of specs, because I'm one of them. For those/us folk, alternatives will survive.

WRT the age thing, simple devices, rather than devices with more and more bells and whistles, will alsoo thrive for some people. See http://roddymacleod.wordpress.com/2011/07/28/saga-of-the-phones/

Hazel Edmunds

"On the way out" depends on whether we're talking about generalities or me personally. In general I agree with your comments.
For me personally I'll be keeping my basic phone and a separate camera;
only just graduated to iPod (grand-daughter's old one) so no way I'm relinquishing that;
I don't have an eReader and don't see myself getting one any time soon;
USB is essential for watching films while I'm travelling on the train (I refuse to pay the train company's exorbitant price for wi-fi) and for backing up my "must never ever lose this" stuff;
keyboard is (for an ex-copy typist) an absolute must; and
cables are greener than rechargeable batteries.

Arthur Weiss

Laptops - to be replaced by tablets. (With desktops remaining).
Written exams - to be replaced by electronic tests where the test changes for brighter pupils (e.g. get 10 questions right - and the next 10 are harder, and so on - to really stretch bright pupils but give less bright confidence too).
Light bulbs you change - will move to LEDs. (Will take many years though).
Physical shops - most will slowly die, replaced by sophisticated online shopping.

As for the list in the Telegraph....

Blackberry. Agree
Cameras. Will split between high quality (HD, 3D cameras) and camera phones. So DSLRs - Yes. Compacts will disappear.
MP3 Players. Agree
eReaders. No way will mobiles take their place. Too small. However there may be a middle-way. What about scrollable e-paper - where you can enlarge your mobile screen by pulling up a collapsable screen. Technology exists - but too expensive.
DVDs, etc. Remind me - what were these. USB Sticks i.e. flash memory - will take longer as they may still be needed for cameras, etc. (Won't always be connectable as no wifi in the wilderness).
Keyboards. Evenutally - but not for a while
Cables. Sooner the better.
Newspapers. No question. Also magazines, books and (dare I say it) traditional libraries (but not librarians - see Seth Godin's article. http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2011/05/the-future-of-the-library.html)
Television. Agree - within 10 years.
Landlines - Will go sooner rather than later. Have already gone for most Millennials (and the latter half of Generation X)
Fax machines. I still have and use one - but not often and they are going.
Keys. Yes - I know buildings where entry is with a combination lock and not a key. Much better.

Debby Raven

I still use fax machine to receive corrections to magazine pages from a proof reader (who lives other end of country). Can't think of a more user friendly way to receive a 'pic' (marks on a page) of something I need as an actual piece of paper.

Laura Steel (@PalelyLaura)

I won't be getting rid of my mp3 player until they make smartphones with much longer battery life. My mp3 player lasts about a week with regular use; my phone only lasts about a day and I'd rather save it for making calls and texts/accessing the web on the go.

I don't know if the cloud will completely take off until fast web access is free and guaranteed everywhere you go. As Hazel says above, train companies charge lots of money for wifi and they're not the only ones.

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